North Korea; Perspectives from an Armchair Political Analyst
By the way, when I say armchair, I mean REALLY armchair, since I hardly even read the news.
So I've been hearing bits and pieces about North Korea fueling a test missile, and the US telling them not to do it or else; I can't tell if the reason I haven't heard more is because North Korea has done this so many times that it's not even interesting anymore, or if North Korea just isn't on the American radar at the moment, or if it's been taken off our radar for a deliberate reason, like by the administration. In any case, the most I heard about it was a brief repartee on a morning radio show:
"What do you think, are we going to have another Korean War?"
"Naw, they're just doing this so we'll send them food. I mean, the guy's crazy, so you can't tell for sure...but this looks like the kind of thing that always happens at the end of a communist regime, when it's done itself in."
I thought, Hm, makes sense. Another war would mean the guaranteed demise of the present regime, and I don't know if even Kim Jong Il is crazy enough to be blind to his losing odds. The questions is then, why don't we take him out already? Even before the Iraq fiasco, the US couldn't take down North Korea by force. The reason? According to one version, it's because North Korea is fully backed by China, and always was.
Oh, that's simple then, I thought. It seemed obvious to me that all this nuclear shizzle had to be a bluff, and when the critical time came, China would know better than to stack their chips on the whims of a total loon; thus, there was no way we would lose, and yes, North Korea was just hedging bets for food.
But then I thought: China has everything to gain by going to war with the US. I mean, who even gives a crap about North Korea? The wars in Korea and Vietnam, after all, had nothing to do with those countries, but rather the US's power struggle with the Soviet Union. My guess is that China would welcome the opportunity to reorganize the balance of power. They're not backing Kim Jong Il because he stands for some deep communist ideal at all! If we were to go to war with China, there's a good chance we'll lose, or at least be severely damaged. Look at Iraq, a much smaller adversary: that war has already ravaged our budget and caused a lot of political dissention.
Meanwhile, China will continue to grow, and is more or less fated to eclipse us in the near future anyways. What better catalyst for that takeover, and our failure, than a war? So the solution is simple, for those Americans to whom world domination is important (I admit, I'm counted in that number; I don't want to live in anything less than absolute security from conquests, etc). No matter how scary nukes and crazy dictators are, we can't go to war.
North Korea seems to know that, and is taking advantage of the moment to score some food.
So I've been hearing bits and pieces about North Korea fueling a test missile, and the US telling them not to do it or else; I can't tell if the reason I haven't heard more is because North Korea has done this so many times that it's not even interesting anymore, or if North Korea just isn't on the American radar at the moment, or if it's been taken off our radar for a deliberate reason, like by the administration. In any case, the most I heard about it was a brief repartee on a morning radio show:
"What do you think, are we going to have another Korean War?"
"Naw, they're just doing this so we'll send them food. I mean, the guy's crazy, so you can't tell for sure...but this looks like the kind of thing that always happens at the end of a communist regime, when it's done itself in."
I thought, Hm, makes sense. Another war would mean the guaranteed demise of the present regime, and I don't know if even Kim Jong Il is crazy enough to be blind to his losing odds. The questions is then, why don't we take him out already? Even before the Iraq fiasco, the US couldn't take down North Korea by force. The reason? According to one version, it's because North Korea is fully backed by China, and always was.
Oh, that's simple then, I thought. It seemed obvious to me that all this nuclear shizzle had to be a bluff, and when the critical time came, China would know better than to stack their chips on the whims of a total loon; thus, there was no way we would lose, and yes, North Korea was just hedging bets for food.
But then I thought: China has everything to gain by going to war with the US. I mean, who even gives a crap about North Korea? The wars in Korea and Vietnam, after all, had nothing to do with those countries, but rather the US's power struggle with the Soviet Union. My guess is that China would welcome the opportunity to reorganize the balance of power. They're not backing Kim Jong Il because he stands for some deep communist ideal at all! If we were to go to war with China, there's a good chance we'll lose, or at least be severely damaged. Look at Iraq, a much smaller adversary: that war has already ravaged our budget and caused a lot of political dissention.
Meanwhile, China will continue to grow, and is more or less fated to eclipse us in the near future anyways. What better catalyst for that takeover, and our failure, than a war? So the solution is simple, for those Americans to whom world domination is important (I admit, I'm counted in that number; I don't want to live in anything less than absolute security from conquests, etc). No matter how scary nukes and crazy dictators are, we can't go to war.
North Korea seems to know that, and is taking advantage of the moment to score some food.
posted by Rex at 8:27 PM
5 Comments:
My mom calls Kim Jong Il "lil kim" cracks me up everytime.. sorry i have nothing of substance to add though :)
The other big thing that makes attacking NK unlikely is its proximity to serious allies like South Korea and Japan. Lil Kim (awesome nickname by the way) absolutely has the tech and the drive to retaliate against those countries in a big way and it wouldn't really do us any good to see Seoul or Tokyo looking like the Lower 9th Ward.
For all the tough talk Iraq was attacked because it was less of a threat. There's no way that would have happened (at least not without some planning) if Saddam were sitting on long-range missiles that could easily level Tel Aviv.
North Korea has fired a test missile before, but that was back in 1998, so this isn't a common event.
There's little strategic value in us attacking North Korea - unless it's to prevent an attack on South Korea or Japan. Despite years of saber-rattling, the North Koreans are still pretty rational. They know that were they to attack someone in the region that they'd get erased in a big hurry, so their gamemanship is mostly about getting attention. To a large degree it's also about their own internal politics, which are driven by institutionalized xenophobia.
From a tactical standpoint, North Korea has a huge amounts of artillery and rockets aimed at Seoul, which is very close to the DMZ. If the US were to strike first, Seoul would suffer major damage and a very large number of people would be killed. This threat is North Korea's ace in the hole and is the reason that there will be no first strike on them by the US.
Wow, I just had the most amazing news flash: apparently South Koreans think it most unlikely that North Korea will bomb Seoul! They think Japan is the most likely target. Thus more and more South Koreans and turning commie these days.
I don't know enough about the issue to say for sure, but that sounds delusional to me. But, maybe when you have a gun pointed at your head you tend to get wildly optimistic.
Since the late 90s the South Korean government has had a so-called "sunshine policy" towards North Korea. It's essentially propaganda to convince the South Koreans that the North Koreans aren't such a bunch of bogeymen in the interest of increased friendship and cooperation between the two countries. It's worked so well that lots of South Koreans now have a higher opinion of North Korea than they do of the US.
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